Dream #64
— February 12, 2026 at 5:30 am
Limerick
A hummingbird flew over Chexbres
While Tholen painted Swiss wine dress
But the soldier fly said
"I'm not easy!" and fled
To Holland Charter's postal address
While Tholen painted Swiss wine dress
But the soldier fly said
"I'm not easy!" and fled
To Holland Charter's postal address
Haiku
Tallgrass prairie sways—
autonomous nerve plexus
innervates the earth
autonomous nerve plexus
innervates the earth
What If
What if the documentation methodologies developed for ancient ceramics in the Corpus Vasorum Antiquorum could be adapted to create standardized uncertainty notation systems for post-normal science applications in biodiversity monitoring across fragmented ecosystems?
Feasibility Assessment
Based on the searches, I can now provide a comprehensive assessment of this speculative hypothesis:
The hypothesis proposes adapting the documentation methodologies from the Corpus Vasorum Antiquorum (CVA), an international research project for systematic documentation of ancient ceramics according to uniform scholarly standards, to create standardized uncertainty notation systems for post-normal science applications in biodiversity monitoring across fragmented ecosystems.
**1. Testability and Nature of the Hypothesis**
This hypothesis is **testable** but highly interdisciplinary. The CVA methodology involves standardized publication formats with uniform documentation standards that form an important basis for further research. Meanwhile, post-normal science focuses on actionable knowledge production for policy decision-making in challenges like biodiversity loss, where uncertainty is a major challenge in detecting biodiversity improvements and requires risk frameworks considering probability and magnitude of decline.
**2. Intersecting Research Areas**
Several research areas already intersect with this concept. The NUSAP (Numeral, Unit, Spread, Assessment and Pedigree) system already outlines a notation system for expressing uncertainty in scientific measurements, including qualitative indications of evidence strength. In biodiversity monitoring, multiple sources of uncertainty exist including sampling design, species identification, detectability, and data quality management. Current approaches include efforts to standardize terminology in metrology communities, though usage varies across disciplines, and ensemble modeling approaches for quantifying uncertainty in ecosystem modeling through standardized simulation protocols.
**3. Key Obstacles and Required Breakthroughs**
The primary obstacles would be: (a) the lack of consensus on terminologies for uncertainty locations and the need for practical frameworks toward uncertainty communication; (b) the recognition that little is known about biodiversity change across vast spatial and taxonomic scales; and (c) the challenge of propagating multiple sources of uncertainty through complex ecosystem calculations. Required breakthroughs would include developing standardized visual and notation systems that can effectively communicate uncertainty across disciplines, similar to how spatially explicit uncertainty communication requires adding dimensions to already complex plots.
The hypothesis appears genuinely novel in its specific combination of archaeological documentation standards with biodiversity uncertainty notation, though individual components exist in related fields. The CVA's century-long experience with international standardization could potentially inform biodiversity monitoring protocols, but significant methodological development would be needed to bridge these disparate domains.
**PLAUSIBILITY: Testable**
The hypothesis proposes adapting the documentation methodologies from the Corpus Vasorum Antiquorum (CVA), an international research project for systematic documentation of ancient ceramics according to uniform scholarly standards, to create standardized uncertainty notation systems for post-normal science applications in biodiversity monitoring across fragmented ecosystems.
**1. Testability and Nature of the Hypothesis**
This hypothesis is **testable** but highly interdisciplinary. The CVA methodology involves standardized publication formats with uniform documentation standards that form an important basis for further research. Meanwhile, post-normal science focuses on actionable knowledge production for policy decision-making in challenges like biodiversity loss, where uncertainty is a major challenge in detecting biodiversity improvements and requires risk frameworks considering probability and magnitude of decline.
**2. Intersecting Research Areas**
Several research areas already intersect with this concept. The NUSAP (Numeral, Unit, Spread, Assessment and Pedigree) system already outlines a notation system for expressing uncertainty in scientific measurements, including qualitative indications of evidence strength. In biodiversity monitoring, multiple sources of uncertainty exist including sampling design, species identification, detectability, and data quality management. Current approaches include efforts to standardize terminology in metrology communities, though usage varies across disciplines, and ensemble modeling approaches for quantifying uncertainty in ecosystem modeling through standardized simulation protocols.
**3. Key Obstacles and Required Breakthroughs**
The primary obstacles would be: (a) the lack of consensus on terminologies for uncertainty locations and the need for practical frameworks toward uncertainty communication; (b) the recognition that little is known about biodiversity change across vast spatial and taxonomic scales; and (c) the challenge of propagating multiple sources of uncertainty through complex ecosystem calculations. Required breakthroughs would include developing standardized visual and notation systems that can effectively communicate uncertainty across disciplines, similar to how spatially explicit uncertainty communication requires adding dimensions to already complex plots.
The hypothesis appears genuinely novel in its specific combination of archaeological documentation standards with biodiversity uncertainty notation, though individual components exist in related fields. The CVA's century-long experience with international standardization could potentially inform biodiversity monitoring protocols, but significant methodological development would be needed to bridge these disparate domains.
**PLAUSIBILITY: Testable**
Sources:
Corpus Vasorum Antiquorum - Wikipedia
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CVA ‒ Corpus Vasorum Antiquorum
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Corpus Vasorum Antiquorum, The Metropolitan Museum of Art fasc. 5, USA fasc. 37: Greek Geometric and Protoattic Pottery – Bryn Mawr Classical Review
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Research: Corpus Vasorum Antiquorum
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Corpus Vasorum Antiquorum – Archeobooks
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The Project: Corpus Vasorum Antiquorum
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Corpus Vasorum Antiquorum: Fascicule 9
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Corpus Vasorum
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About
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History: Corpus Vasorum Antiquorum
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Global monitoring for biodiversity: Uncertainty, risk, and power analyses to support trend change detection | Science Advances
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Global monitoring for biodiversity: Uncertainty, risk, and power analyses to support trend change detection - PMC
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Global monitoring for biodiversity: Uncertainty, risk, and power analyses to support trend change detection - PubMed
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Revealing uncertainty in the status of biodiversity change | Nature
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Revealing uncertainty in the status of biodiversity change - PMC
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Revealing uncertainty in the status of biodiversity change - PubMed
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Post-normal science - Wikipedia
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Uncertainty and the design of in-situ biodiversity-monitoring programs
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An overview of remote monitoring methods in biodiversity conservation - PMC
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Treating gaps and biases in biodiversity data as a missing data problem - PMC
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Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making: One Earth
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Current Practices in Reporting Uncertainty in Ecosystem Ecology | Ecosystems | Springer Nature Link
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Uncertainty in Socio-Ecological Systems → Term
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Nine lives of uncertainty in decision-making: strategies for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance
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Identifying uncertainties in scenarios and models of socio-ecological systems in support of decision-making - ScienceDirect
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Uncertainty assessment in ecosystem services analyses: Seven challenges and practical responses - ScienceDirect
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Incorporating uncertainty in predictive species distribution modelling - PMC
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Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling - Cressie - 2009 - Ecological Applications - Wiley Online Library
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Understanding Uncertainty in Ecological Forecasts
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Uncertainty analysis in integrated environmental models for ecosystem service assessments: Frameworks, challenges and gaps - ScienceDirect